Posted 1 week ago | by Catoshi Nakamoto
My fellow Americans, today I am here to inform the American people, that investing in Bitcoin and other crypto assets is a game of speculation. It’s a statistical escapade of attempting to identify patterns, trends and tendencies. Once you develop an “edge”, you use these patterns to your and make life-changing gains. My question is: is there a pattern or correlation between Bitcoin and who gets chosen to sit in the oval office? Time to lock up the ballot box and shuffle through the house of cards.Read More
Lets get it!
Welcome to BitBoy Crypto. My name is Ben and my mission is to empower you to find financial freedom through digital assets. If you want to go deeper into crypto, make sure to check out bitlabacademy.com. In this video, we will discuss how Presidential elections and mid terms affect the price of Bitcoin.
The most successful traders are the ones who can identify reoccurring patterns and capitalize on the likelihood of history repeating itself. Some traders take the analytical approach and rely solely on TA/ reading charts. On the other hand, there are a number of traders who find more unconventional patterns and don’t take charts into much consideration. For instance, some traders will trade based off the phases of the moon, or only trade during October or even something as arbitrary as buying every Friday and selling every Monday. The key to this type of belief system is trying to find a pattern that plays out more times than it doesn’t; regardless of the news, two hour charts, or Bollinger bands. What you would be astounded to learn here is that sometimes they are right! That doesn’t make them the best traders in the world, but a pattern is a pattern! Jay Z once said, “Even a broken clock is right twice a day.” Understand that at the end of the day, the charts you look at, are a reflection of human emotion. When people are really emotional, when there’s blood in the streets, that’s when veteran traders make the biggest plays. How can you use this to your advantage? There’s an array of things that make people emotional, but in America, what gets people more fired up than elections?
In statistics, it’s difficult to make a completely accurate assumption about anything without a cluster of data. There are only three major elections to go off of in the life span of Bitcoin, so be cautious using this as a definitive green light because there’s not a large cluster of data. Also keep in mind that correlation is not causation; just because something happens two or three times doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to happen next time. Yes, there is an array of data between elections and the stock markets, and yes, to an extent Bitcoin does correlate with the traditional markets, but other times, Bitcoin’s completely decouples from the traditional markets. Like did the traditional markets increase over 15,000% in the past seven years? No…they didn’t, so for the sake of this video, lets just stick to Bitcoin. So what numbers do we have to work with? We have the 2012 election when Obama defeated Romney, the 2016 election when Trump defeated Clinton and the 2020 election when Biden defeated Trump, and the mid terms for the first two tenures.
Bitcoin was created in 2009 and was trading for nine cents by July of 2010. (source) (Don’t you wish you could buy Bitcoin for nine cents now?) Investopedia reported that the first real world purchase using Bitcoin took place on May 22, 2010. As the story goes, a man named Laszlo Hanyecz purchased two medium Papa Johns pizza’s for 10,000 Bitcoin. Today that’s valued for over $407 million dollars. That’s over $25 million a slice! (That guy must really like pepperoni.) Bitcoin hit a dollar for the first time in February of 2011. Once it was available on Mt. Gox, it surged to $15 dollars by July. Then in typical Bitcoin fashion, it corrected heavily and ended the year just over $3 dollars. Right away, this asset was feared for its unpredictable volatility. It also didn’t help that Bitcoin had a negative stigma attached to it for a while because of its association with Silk Road. Regardless, now were on to the first election year for Bitcoin. In 2012, Obama was running for reelection against Mitt Romney. After Bitcoin’s massive 2011 correction, it mostly traded sideways for around $5 dollars for the first half of 2012. From June to October, Bitcoin surged from $5.27 to $12.40. (chart) In anticipation for the election,
Bitcoin dropped to $10.57 and once Obama won, it went back up for the rest of the year. Also keep in mind that Bitcoin had it’s first halving in 2012 and went from $12 dollars to $1,150 within a year, increasing nearly 9,500%. (source) The halving cycles started off in sync with the elections, but they will eventually fall out of sync because they’re off by a few months. So for 2012, it’s hard to tell which of these factors were really responsible for Bitcoin going up, but they key take away from this election was when it went down in October. Markets don’t react well to times of uncertainty. That’s something you should always keep in mind. Once the election was over, Bitcoin continued its upward trajectory. 2013 was the first year of parabolic bullishness and 2014 was a soul crushing bear market. The mid terms in 2014 didn’t really play much of a role at all. Bitcoin only went up in 3 out of 12 months in 2014, and the lowest price increase of those three green months was during the midterms. It only went up 53 dollars from November to December. Overall takeaway from 2012 election: Hesitation before election and bullish continuation afterwards with a minimal price increase from Midterms.
In 2016, Donald Trump set out to “Make America Great Again.” Before you get into the comment remember there is no red or blue party here, only gains. My goal is to educate and inform the Bitsquad so you guys can have green candle parties. The start of 2016 was very bullish increasing from the February low of $371 to it’s July peak of $676. The second halving occurred in July, and instead of an immediate pump, Bitcoin unexpectedly fell to $571 in September. This time, there was no pre-election hesitation, and Bitcoin continued to rise through the election. The market cap of Bitcoin grew 3.55 Billion dollars from November to December 2016, proving that once again, the aftermath of the election was bullish. The following year, 2017 was a MASSIVE year for Bitcoin. From year end to end it went from just under $1,000 dollars all the way to $13,412. I wish Bitcoin could 13X every year; wouldn’t that be nice? Just like 2013 was a bull and 2014 was a bear, 2017 was a bull and 2018 was a bear. (Maybe there’s a pattern there?) Unfortunately, Trumps 2018 midterms were bearish. The price dropped over $2100 from November to December and the market cap lost over 4.5 billion dollars. Overall takeaway so far: two bullish elections, one sort of bullish midterm and one bearish midterm.
Now we’re onto the third election in Bitcoin’s life span, when Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump. 2020 was a very bullish year for crypto, with 8 of the 12 months being green months and the year as a whole was in an overall upward trajectory. Just like in 2012, there was a pre-election hesitation, except this one came a month sooner than before. The price of Bitcoin continued to surge through the November election, when the price was just under $14k. That surge continued well into 2021’s $63k all time high in April. From November to December 2020, almost $175 Billion dollars was added to the market cap, proving we’re three for three in bullish presidential elections. (source) That sounds like a pattern to me. The next midterm elections will be on November 8th this year, and it remains to be seen if there is a pattern with the midterms or not. This one is the tiebreaker.
The next election will be on November 5th 2024. We don’t know for sure if this one will be the fourth consecutive bullish election or not, but we can count on it being an emotional one. Newsweek already released an article that shows 3 in 5 Americans fear violence will ensue as a result of the next election. These emotions will translate in the charts, and it’s our job to use that to our advantage. I’ve mentioned before that emotional decisions are often referred to as mistakes. Don’t focus on your feelings. Focus on the statistics. Last year, it was estimated that 14-16% of Americans owned crypto, that number is 22% now. (source) Between 2012 and 2020, Bitcoin increased 193,639% (source) God Bless Statistics, God Bless Bitcoin, and God Bless America.
That’s all I got, be blessed. BitBoy Out!